Friday, June 17, 2011

The U.S. Economy.. Slowing or Growing??

So it's now official, the U.S. Economy is going through a “soft spot”. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking last week at an International Monetary Conference in Atlanta:

  1. "The U.S. economy is recovering from both the worst financial crisis and the most severe housing bust since the Great Depression, and it faces additional headwinds ranging from the effects of the Japanese disaster to global pressures in commodity markets. In this context, monetary policy cannot be a panacea."
  2. …the economic recovery is “uneven …and frustratingly slow
  3. "The Fed will keep interest rates bottomed out for “an extended period."

A few conclusions spring forth from these quotes:

  1. The Fed will keep Interest Rates low for as long as possible; longer than most economists currently believe. Bonds won‟t be under too much interest rate pressure for a while yet.
  2. Chairman Ben Bernanke currently feels the launch of a third round of monetary easing will probably do nothing to stimulate "real" economic demand; principally meaning create jobs.
  3. Ben is looking for help from the Government and Private Sectors in his efforts to inflate the economy.
  4. The Fed expected QE2 to have more impact on jobs and GDP. The money benefited the banking industry but not industry in general.
It's possible to explain away the "soft spot" as a result of the Spring 2011 Supply Shocks in Japan and the Middle East; it may even be possible to extrapolate this thinking to justify a return to GDP growth in the Fall.

But one thing remains, until the job market shows signs of sustained improvement, long term confidence in a persistent domestic economic recovery will be questionable. 

“Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established”, another quote from Ben Bernanke

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